Segmentation is Just the Start. The Real Win is in Response Modeling.

If you’re a fundraiser, you’re already practicing segmentation.
Segmenting your donor file by RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary value) is a fundamental principle in fundraising. It’s a great way to identify your most loyal supporters, and it’s a necessary first step. But in today’s environment, it’s only the baseline.
The problem with traditional segmentation is that it’s reactive. It’s a look in the rearview mirror, telling you what a donor did but not why they did it or what they’ll do next. It also can’t help you find new donors who resemble your current ones.
The next step is predictive response modeling. This means making strategic decisions based not just on past giving, but on data that predicts who will respond right now. When you combine this predictive power with a multi-channel view, you get more efficient campaigns and a significantly higher ROI.
woman in board meeting

Stop Guessing on Acquisition

Rather than assuming every prospect list will perform the same way, organizations can now build acquisition strategies around behavioral data. One prime example is predictive acquisition modeling. Instead of renting a broad “look-alike” list based on simple demographics, fundraisers can use data to score every single prospect on their likelihood to respond to a specific mission.
Path2Response’s Path2Acquisition™ solution takes this even further. We don’t guess. We analyze billions of real, first-party donation and purchase transactions from our “always-on” data cooperative. Our machine-learning models identify new prospects who are behaviorally similar to your best donors, pinpointing individuals who are currently giving to similar causes or purchasing from mission-aligned brands.
A significant cultural preservation nonprofit put this to the test. Their internal team had a “control” list they trusted. Path2Acquisition™ built a new, custom-filtered audience. The results were clear:
The Path2Response audience delivered a

127%

increase in average gift
&

112

Response Rate Index
compared to their control

They avoided a costly, broad mailing and instead focused their budget only on a proven, high-value segment.

Turn "Maybe" Leads into "Yes" Donors

Audience-level modeling is also necessary for “top-of-funnel” leads. What about the thousands of names on your file from website petitions, event sign-ups, or contest entries? You have “limited data,” and you can’t afford to send your expensive direct mail package to all of them.
This is where data optimization becomes critical. Instead of a one-size-fits-all welcome series, you can rank every single lead on their “direct response-readiness.”

Our Path2Optimize™ solution does exactly this. You send us your file of “low-data” leads, and we match it against our massive dataset of actual consumer and donor transactions. We enrich the records and, most importantly, provide a response-readiness score for every person. This allows for a smart, tiered contact strategy:

You stop wasting money on “maybes” and focus your resources on the people who are statistically proven to be your next best donors.

Prove Your Multi-Channel Impact

Segmented messaging is another key piece. You know your direct mail is “feeling a bit stale,” and you know you should be doing multi-channel outreach. But how do you know if adding something like Connected TV (CTV) actually works or just adds to your costs?
Instead of guessing, you can use a unified, “people-based” audience to measure the true lift.
Because Path2Response audiences are built from real people (not cookies or devices), we can reach those same individuals across channels. We worked with a nonprofit client to enhance their direct mail program by incorporating a hyper-targeted Connected TV campaign targeting the same exact audience segment.
The campaign, which combined Path2Response direct mail and CTV, resulted in a 21% increase in donations compared to their traditional mail-only campaigns. They didn’t just add a channel; they had the data to prove its incremental value.
That’s the power of predictive response modeling. It moves your strategy beyond reactive, one-size-fits-all segmentation and gives fundraisers a data-backed way to find, convert, and retain the right donors. It’s how you find the true Path2Response.
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